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The Big Ten has won three straight national titles with three different programs: Michigan in 2023, Ohio State in 2024, Indiana in 2025. ESPN's Bill Connelly opened the 2026 preview by congratulating Oregon in advance, on the theory that if the league is going to keep handing the trophy to a new school every year, Dan Lanning's Ducks are next. SP+ agrees on the top of the board: Ohio State first, Oregon second, Indiana fifth nationally. An unofficial media poll compiled by Cleveland.com and recapped by CBS Sports has the same three in that order.
This is part of GameSim's 2026-27 conference preview series. Already posted:
GameSim's 2025 computer is in the same neighborhood and not in the same mood. Ohio State finished No. 2 nationally. Oregon was fifth. Defending champion Indiana went 16-0 and still landed sixth, because the engine grades efficiency, not the trophy case. Twenty-five simulations of the 2026-27 slate then split the three-team race: Indiana 68 percent at home against Ohio State, Oregon 56 percent in Columbus, Michigan 68 percent in The Game. The league still looks top-heavy. The computer will not pick just one champion.
Indiana ran the table. The Hoosiers went 9-0 in the Big Ten, beat Ohio State 13-10 in the championship game, then won the 12-team College Football Playoff: Alabama 38-3, Oregon 56-22, Miami 27-21 in the title game. Curt Cignetti's two-year leap from 9-27 to 27-2 is the sport's loudest recent fact.
Ohio State and Oregon were the other two teams in the country that looked built for January, until they weren't. The Buckeyes went 9-0 in league play, then scored 24 combined points in the title game and a 24-14 CFP loss to Miami. Oregon went 8-1 in the Big Ten, beat James Madison and Texas Tech in the playoff, and got run off the field by Indiana in the semifinals. Connelly's line still holds: over three seasons the Ducks were essentially unbeatable against anyone who did not reach the national title game.
The rest of the league was the usual 18-team pile. Michigan, USC, Iowa, Washington, Illinois, and Minnesota all won at least eight games. Penn State fired James Franklin after a pile of one-score losses and still finished 7-6. Purdue went 0-9 in conference. GameSim's computer and the win column did not always agree.
| Team | Record | Big Ten | GameSim rank | Adj. offense | Adj. defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | 12-2 | 9-0 | 2 | 126.4 | 63.3 |
| Oregon | 13-2 | 8-1 | 5 | 130.7 | 72.3 |
| Indiana | 16-0 | 9-0 | 6 | 136.3 | 80.3 |
| USC | 9-4 | 7-2 | 13 | 135.9 | 88.7 |
| Michigan | 9-4 | 7-2 | 14 | 121.0 | 79.2 |
| Washington | 9-4 | 5-4 | 15 | 124.5 | 83.0 |
| Iowa | 9-4 | 6-3 | 18 | 111.5 | 75.9 |
| Nebraska | 7-6 | 4-5 | 36 | 121.1 | 91.0 |
| Illinois | 9-4 | 5-4 | 39 | 110.4 | 84.2 |
| Penn State | 7-6 | 3-6 | 43 | 110.3 | 85.5 |
| Wisconsin | 4-8 | 2-7 | 54 | 100.6 | 83.6 |
| UCLA | 3-9 | 3-6 | 60 | 104.7 | 91.9 |
| Minnesota | 8-5 | 5-4 | 68 | 97.2 | 90.9 |
| Michigan State | 4-8 | 1-8 | 70 | 106.4 | 100.7 |
| Purdue | 2-10 | 0-9 | 74 | 105.9 | 101.6 |
| Northwestern | 7-6 | 4-5 | 78 | 99.9 | 98.5 |
| Maryland | 4-8 | 1-8 | 85 | 98.4 | 100.2 |
| Rutgers | 5-7 | 2-7 | 107 | 110.7 | 126.5 |
Read the table the way the engine does. Ohio State's 63.3 adjusted defense was the best in the league. Indiana's 136.3 adjusted offense was the best, with USC a hair behind at 135.9. Minnesota won eight games and ranked 68th. Northwestern won seven and ranked 78th. Rutgers scored enough to look alive and ranked 107th because the defense (126.5) was a sinkhole. Penn State went 7-6 and landed 43rd, which is colder than SP+ and warmer than the vibe in State College last November.
The league is still nine conference games. Live 2026-27 rankings are not posted yet, so the 2025 computer is the baseline and the projected roster file is what the simulator uses until enough real games exist.
Projected pass leaders for 2026-27: Julian Sayin (Ohio State, 3,155 yards, 30 TDs), Jayden Maiava (USC, 3,090, 20), Dante Moore (Oregon, 3,018, 26), Josh Hoover (Indiana, 2,876, 30), Demond Williams (Washington, 2,846, 20). Bryce Underwood is Michigan's projected starter (2,603, 18). Rocco Becht is Penn State's (2,592, 16). Colton Joseph is Wisconsin's (2,216, 14). Nico Iamaleava is still the UCLA projection (2,489, 15).
Projected rush leaders worth tracking: Jordan Marshall (Michigan, 1,130 yards), Bo Jackson (Ohio State, 1,016), Waymond Jordan (USC, 952), Carson Hansen (Penn State, 962), Turbo Richard (Indiana, 890), Jordon Davison (Oregon, 862), Wayne Knight (UCLA, 757). Those names match the portal board Connelly highlighted: Hoover replacing Fernando Mendoza, Joseph from Old Dominion, Knight following Bob Chesney from James Madison.
Week 1 stored boards (80 runs) are mostly cupcakes with a couple of tells. Ohio State 24.8-7.1 vs Ball State (75-5). Oregon 28.8-16.1 vs Boise State (67-13). Indiana 25.1-15.0 vs North Texas (60-20). Michigan 24.9-10.9 vs Western Michigan (73-7). Penn State only 21.9-12.3 vs Marshall (57-23), which is not a "dark horse in waiting" opener. UCLA is 23.9-11.6 at California (65-15 on the road), the first Chesney number that looks like a program change.
Ryan Day's Buckeyes were ruthlessly efficient for 12 games, then conservative when the season actually started. Connelly's complaint is the same as the box scores: 24 points across Indiana and Miami, a missed field goal on fourth-and-1 from the Indiana 9, a four-minute punt drive while trailing Miami. Sayin is back. Bo Jackson is back. Jeremiah Smith is back for one more year. The offensive line returns two All-Big Ten pieces. The defense does not: three first-rounders and a pile of transfers. SP+ still has Ohio State No. 1. GameSim had them No. 2 after 2025, with the best defense in the league and a harder 2026-27 slate (Texas on the road, Indiana on the road, Oregon at home, Michigan at home).
Dante Moore came back after 3,565 yards and 30 touchdowns. Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill are the projected backfield. Connelly's continuity table loves the Ducks more than almost anyone. The anxiety is familiar: new coordinators after Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi took head jobs, and an offensive line that has been overwhelmed in consecutive CFP losses. GameSim had Oregon fifth nationally in 2025, with the second-best Big Ten defense (72.3) behind Ohio State. If the streak of new champions continues, this is the roster that should cash it.
Cignetti replaced a Heisman winner with Josh Hoover, who has 9,629 career passing yards and is the projected 30-TD quarterback in our 2026-27 file. Turbo Richard is the projected lead back. The 2025 engine loved the Hoosiers' offense (136.3) and was cooler on the defense (80.3) than on Ohio State or Oregon. That is why a perfect season still produced a No. 6 rank. The 2026-27 simulations are less skeptical once the game is in Bloomington: Indiana 35.3-31.8 against Ohio State, winning 17 of 25. The champs are not a one-year glitch in this model. They are also not a lock to survive October in Ann Arbor or November in Seattle.
Lincoln Riley brings Jayden Maiava back and hired Gary Patterson to run the defense. Connelly's entire USC section is "if the defense is good, they are a playoff team." GameSim already treated 2025 USC like a top-15 offense (135.9) stuck behind a 88.7 defense. The 2026-27 sims are aggressive: Trojans 60 percent at home against Oregon, 84 percent at Penn State. That is the loudest "sleeper" number on the board. Treat 25 runs as directional. Do not ignore a team the engine keeps putting in the 30s on the scoreboard.
Featured games are 25 simulations with 2026-27 projected rosters and home-field advantage. Treat the percentages as a directional read. Open the prediction page or rerun at 100 simulations for a tighter number. ESPN's five best Big Ten games are all here. We added Texas, Oregon at USC, and The Game because those are the other dates that can end a title bid before Indianapolis.
The rematch of last year's 14-7 slog, now in Austin. Twenty-five simulations have Texas 30.6, Ohio State 28.8, Buckeyes winning 14 of 25 (56 percent) on the road. That is not SP+ cruise control. Arch Manning against Sayin in September is the first national measuring stick for both leagues.
Connelly flagged the Week 4 trip to the Coliseum as one of two games that will tell us what Oregon is. GameSim has USC 33.7-31.7, winning 15 of 25 (60 percent) at home. If that holds, the Ducks' "your turn" season starts with a West Coast hole. If Moore and the front six travel, Riley's defense-first bet gets stress-tested before October.
ESPN's first huge conference game, and Matt Campbell's chance to announce a dark horse. Our board does not buy the dark horse yet. Twenty-five simulations have USC 35.8, Penn State 25.0, Trojans winning 21 of 25 (84 percent) in Happy Valley. That is a small sample and a brutal number. Becht and a rebuilt Cyclone-heavy roster have to prove more than the Marshall opener (71 percent in 80 stored runs) before this date looks like an elimination game for USC instead of a trap for PSU.
Last year's title game in a regular-season wrapper. GameSim has Indiana 35.3-31.8, winning 17 of 25 (68 percent) at home. The engine that ranked Ohio State ahead of Indiana on 2025 efficiency still gives the champs the ball in Bloomington. If you only remember one number from this preview, remember this one: the computer does not make Ohio State a road favorite against the team that already beat them in December.
Kyle Whittingham's first Michigan team against the defending champs. Twenty-five simulations have Michigan 30.8-25.2, winning 15 of 25 (60 percent). Underwood and Jordan Marshall against Hoover is the other midseason test Cignetti did not have last year in quite this form. A Hoosier loss here does not end a CFP bid. It does make the 16-0 magic look harder to repeat.
The game ESPN built the preview around. Only Michigan and Oregon have winning records against Ohio State this decade, and the Buckeyes lost their last home game to each. GameSim has Oregon 34.6, Ohio State 31.8, Ducks winning 14 of 25 (56 percent) in Columbus. That is a toss-up with a slight road lean, not a Buckeye coronation. Moore versus Sayin, with both title paths still alive, is the league's best Saturday if the top three get there 9-0 or 8-1.
Connelly called it sneaky big. The 25-sim board agrees. Washington 30.9, Indiana 32.9, Huskies winning 13 of 25 (52 percent) at home. Demond Williams against a Hoosier defense that ranked behind Ohio State and Oregon in 2025 is a live dog. Washington's 2025 profile (ninth-ish defense, four losses to the league's best fronts) says this is exactly the kind of late-November game that decides whether Jedd Fisch is a playoff coach or a nine-win coach.
The loudest 25-sim result on the slate. GameSim has Michigan 32.0, Ohio State 30.1, Wolverines winning 17 of 25 (68 percent) in Columbus. That is directional, not a betting card. It is also the same engine that just had Oregon 56 percent in the same building. Whittingham, Underwood, and a Utah-flavored defense against a Buckeye unit replacing most of its NFL front is the late-season stress test SP+ is not pricing in as heavily as we are.
Michigan (GameSim 14) is a first-year Whittingham team with the No. 1 recruit from 2025 at quarterback. The 2026-27 sims like them more than the media poll's fifth-place slot.
Washington (15) and Iowa (18) are the other 2025 top-20 leftovers. The Huskies have to prove they can score on good defenses. The Hawkeyes have to replace a Phil Parker defense that had not ranked worse than sixth in SP+ since 2018. Hank Brown is the projected Iowa passer (1,691 yards), which is an Iowa passing line even when the run game (Kamari Moulton, 874) is fine.
Illinois won nine games and ranked 39th. Nebraska won seven and ranked 36th, with the better offense (121.1). Matt Rhule's Year 4 stall is real. Anthony Colandrea is the projected Husker quarterback (2,682 yards). Minnesota keeps winning bowls with a bottom-half offense (97.2 in 2025). Drake Lindsey is still the projection.
Matt Campbell inherits a Penn State job that still expects New Year's Six and a roster that returns almost nobody. Rocco Becht, Carson Hansen, and a wave of Iowa State transfers are the Year 1 identity. Our 2025 rank (43) and the USC sim (16 percent at home) are the cold read. The Marshall board (71 percent) is the warm one. Both can be true in September.
Kyle Whittingham left Utah for Michigan. Jason Beck calling plays for Bryce Underwood is the experiment. John Henry Daley is the ESPN transfer to watch on the edge. Our The Game sim is the optimistic version of that hire.
Bob Chesney brought James Madison production to UCLA. Wayne Knight is the projected 757-yard back. The stored Cal board (81 percent on the road) is the first sign the engine likes the vibe change. Pat Fitzgerald is Year 1 at Michigan State with Alessio Milivojevic (2,778 projected passing yards) and Cam Edwards (902 rushing). Purdue and Rutgers are the ESPN 6-6 path teams. Rutgers has the league's projected rushing leader (Antwan Raymond, 1,237) and the 2025 defense that ranked 107th overall. That is still the problem.
Luke Fickell kept his job and added Colton Joseph. Wisconsin was 4-8 and 54th on our board, with a defense (83.6) that was better than the record. If Joseph hits, the floor moves. Northwestern hosts a new Ryan Field and draws Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana on the road. Chip Kelly and Aidan Chiles will have to steal one of those.
Start with the college football teams directory, then use each team page for predictions and ratings. The rankings will fill in once the season has enough games. For any Saturday, the predictions board updates as we run the slate. To test Sayin versus Hoover, Moore versus Maiava, or Underwood versus Sayin, open the simulator and set both years to 2026-27.
Try the 2026-27 season yourself. Any registered MyGameSim user can simulate college football matchups now. No subscription required. Free accounts get up to 3 current-season sims per day. Open the college football simulator, set both years to 2026-27, and run the game. Need an account? Register free or log in.
Detailed projected player stats stay behind GameSim+. Developers can hit the same engine through the GameSim API.
Our working read: Ohio State is still the 2025 efficiency king, Oregon is the team the sport wants to crown next, and Indiana's home board against the Buckeyes says the champs belong in the same sentence. USC is the computer's fourth Big Ten team until Patterson's defense proves otherwise. Michigan's Columbus number is the 25-sim result that will look either prophetic or noisy by Thanksgiving. In a nine-game Big Ten, that is the feature, not the bug.
